Editorial Board
Journal of Socio-Economics, Volume 38, Issue 6, December 2009, Page CO2
Editorial Board
Ecological Economics, Volume 69, Issue 1, 15 November 2009, Page IFC
jueves, 1 de octubre de 2009
miércoles, 30 de septiembre de 2009
Implications of more precise information for technological development and economic welfare
Abstract
This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between the precision of information, technological development, and welfare within an overlapping generations model. More precise information about idiosyncratic production shocks has ambiguous effects on technological progress and welfare, which depend critically on the risk sharing capacity of the economy's financial system. Two effects, which can act in the same or in opposite directions, are at work: (i) more precise information allows agents to make better decisions but restricts the scope for risk sharing (the ‘uncertainty-related effect’) and (ii) more precise information, by changing R&D investment, may have a long-lasting effect due to the model's intertemporal production externality (the ‘externality-related effect’).
Burkhard Dreesa, 1 and Bernhard Eckwertb, ,
aIMF Institute International Monetary Fund USA
bDepartment of Economics University of Bielefeld Germany
Accepted 15 July 2009.
Available online december 2009.
This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between the precision of information, technological development, and welfare within an overlapping generations model. More precise information about idiosyncratic production shocks has ambiguous effects on technological progress and welfare, which depend critically on the risk sharing capacity of the economy's financial system. Two effects, which can act in the same or in opposite directions, are at work: (i) more precise information allows agents to make better decisions but restricts the scope for risk sharing (the ‘uncertainty-related effect’) and (ii) more precise information, by changing R&D investment, may have a long-lasting effect due to the model's intertemporal production externality (the ‘externality-related effect’).
Burkhard Dreesa, 1 and Bernhard Eckwertb, ,
aIMF Institute International Monetary Fund USA
bDepartment of Economics University of Bielefeld Germany
Accepted 15 July 2009.
Available online december 2009.
Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model
Department of Applied Economics, No. 580, Sinmin Road, Chiayi City 60054, Taiwan, ROC
Accepted 1 June 2009.
Available online 26 June 2009.
Abstract
The predictability of stock return dynamics is a topic discussed most frequently in empirical studies; however, no unanimous conclusion has yet been reached due to the ignorance of structural changes in stock price dynamics. This study applies various regime switching GJR-GARCH models to analyze the effects of macroeconomic variables (interest rate, dividend yield, and default premium) on stock return movements (including conditional mean, conditional variance, and transition probabilities) in the U.S. stock market, so as to clearly compare the predictive validity of stable and volatile states, as well as compare the in-sample and out-of-sample portfolio performance of regime switching models. The empirical results show that macro factors can affect the stock return dynamics through two different channels, and that the magnitude of their influences on returns and volatility is not constant. The effects of the three economic variables on returns are not time-invariant, but are closely related to stock market fluctuations, and the strength of predictability in a volatile regime is far greater than that in a stable regime. It is found that interest rate and dividend yield seem to play an important role in predicting conditional variance, and out-of-sample performance is largely eroded when the effects of these two factors on volatility are ignored. In addition, the three macro factors do not play any role in predicting transition probabilities
Kuang-Liang Chang,
aDepartment of Applied Economics, No. 580, Sinmin Road, Chiayi City 60054, Taiwan, ROC
fecha de publicacion: noviembre de 2009
Accepted 1 June 2009.
Available online 26 June 2009.
Abstract
The predictability of stock return dynamics is a topic discussed most frequently in empirical studies; however, no unanimous conclusion has yet been reached due to the ignorance of structural changes in stock price dynamics. This study applies various regime switching GJR-GARCH models to analyze the effects of macroeconomic variables (interest rate, dividend yield, and default premium) on stock return movements (including conditional mean, conditional variance, and transition probabilities) in the U.S. stock market, so as to clearly compare the predictive validity of stable and volatile states, as well as compare the in-sample and out-of-sample portfolio performance of regime switching models. The empirical results show that macro factors can affect the stock return dynamics through two different channels, and that the magnitude of their influences on returns and volatility is not constant. The effects of the three economic variables on returns are not time-invariant, but are closely related to stock market fluctuations, and the strength of predictability in a volatile regime is far greater than that in a stable regime. It is found that interest rate and dividend yield seem to play an important role in predicting conditional variance, and out-of-sample performance is largely eroded when the effects of these two factors on volatility are ignored. In addition, the three macro factors do not play any role in predicting transition probabilities
Kuang-Liang Chang,
aDepartment of Applied Economics, No. 580, Sinmin Road, Chiayi City 60054, Taiwan, ROC
fecha de publicacion: noviembre de 2009
jueves, 24 de septiembre de 2009
reingenieria
en tiempos de cambio rapido y drastico, algunas veces es necesario que los gerentes se pregunten:¿ como hariamos las cosas si tuvieramos que empezar de la nada? esta pregunta expresa la esencia de lo que es rengenieria . esta practica requiere que los gerentes reconsideren como deberia hacerse el trabajo y estructurarse la organizacion si tuvieran que comenzar todo de nuevo. en apariencia muchos gerentes se preguntan esto. una encuesta realizada en estados unidos entre las mayores compañias industriales establecieron que, de ellos, el 83% se vio envuelto en reingenieria. una encuesta similar en 600 compañias europeas revelo que el 75% puso en practica la cuando al menos una iniciativa de reingenieria. incluso muchas compañias japonesas estan sustituyendo su estilo tradicional de busqueda de mejoras lentas pero continuas con esfuerzos de reingenieria. compañias grandes como kao, kawasaki steel, ryoshoku trading, seiko epson, casio computer, fumitsu y oki electric industry son algunas de las empresas japonesas que se han subido al vagon de la reingenieria.
la reingenieria se fundamenta y consiste en que las organizaciones desarrollan procesos durante sus primeros años de operacion y despues se manejan a los cambios tecnologicos y de procesos como reconstruir practicas de trabajo, fragmentacion de trabajo y concepto organizacionales.
palgrave; significado de globalizacion y economia en ingles
globalization:
Globalization and the welfare state are commonly considered to be related; more precisely, many people believe that globalization exerts a negative influence on the size and scope of the welfare state. This contention has been examined in an impressive number of scholarly investigations. Since globalization has far-reaching effects on income distribution, this issue has, however, attracted not only social scientists but also all kinds of political entrepreneurs: well-meaning public figures concerned with the globalization-induced social dynamic, political demagogues vying for political support, and even street rioters.
economy:
The second economy in the Soviet-type command economies (STEs) was defined by Grossman (1977) as all economic activities that are either undertaken directly for private gain or are knowingly illegal in some substantial way. Both legal and illegal economic activities fall within this definition. The second economy served as a precursor of the unofficial sector in the economies in transition. Accordingly, the institution of unofficial economy in transition is properly understood as an heir to the second economy in the STEs.
Globalization and the welfare state are commonly considered to be related; more precisely, many people believe that globalization exerts a negative influence on the size and scope of the welfare state. This contention has been examined in an impressive number of scholarly investigations. Since globalization has far-reaching effects on income distribution, this issue has, however, attracted not only social scientists but also all kinds of political entrepreneurs: well-meaning public figures concerned with the globalization-induced social dynamic, political demagogues vying for political support, and even street rioters.
economy:
The second economy in the Soviet-type command economies (STEs) was defined by Grossman (1977) as all economic activities that are either undertaken directly for private gain or are knowingly illegal in some substantial way. Both legal and illegal economic activities fall within this definition. The second economy served as a precursor of the unofficial sector in the economies in transition. Accordingly, the institution of unofficial economy in transition is properly understood as an heir to the second economy in the STEs.
publicaciones modelos economicos
Volume 26, Issue 6, Pages 1135-1454 (November 2009)
Sajid Anwar, John Rice, Labour mobility and wage inequality in the presence of endogenous foreign investment
Pages 1135-1139
Yemane Wolde-Rufael, Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya
Pages 1140-1146
Mardi Dungey, Renée Fry, The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR
Pages 1147-1160
Chien-Hsun Chen, Chao-Cheng Mai, Yu-Lin Liu, Shin-Ying Mai, Privatization and optimal share release in the Chinese banking industry
Pages 1161-1171
Hakan Berument, Yeliz Yalcin, Julide Yildirim, The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework
Pages 1201-1207
Sajid Anwar, John Rice, Labour mobility and wage inequality in the presence of endogenous foreign investment
Pages 1135-1139
Yemane Wolde-Rufael, Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya
Pages 1140-1146
Mardi Dungey, Renée Fry, The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR
Pages 1147-1160
Chien-Hsun Chen, Chao-Cheng Mai, Yu-Lin Liu, Shin-Ying Mai, Privatization and optimal share release in the Chinese banking industry
Pages 1161-1171
Hakan Berument, Yeliz Yalcin, Julide Yildirim, The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework
Pages 1201-1207
alertas economicas
Kamil Yilmaz, Return and Volatility Spillovers among the East Asian Equity Markets
Journal of Asian Economics, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 23 September 2009
Carsten Ochsen, Crime and Labor Market Policy in Europe
International Review of Law and Economics, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 19 September 2009
Elisabeth Dedman, Clive Lennox, Perceived competition, profitability and the withholding of information about sales and the cost of sales
Journal of Accounting and Economics, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 19 September 2009
Sylvie Thoron, Emmanuel Sol, Marc Willinger, Do binding agreements solve the social dilemma?
Journal of Public Economics, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 18 September 2009
Journal of Asian Economics, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 23 September 2009
Carsten Ochsen, Crime and Labor Market Policy in Europe
International Review of Law and Economics, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 19 September 2009
Elisabeth Dedman, Clive Lennox, Perceived competition, profitability and the withholding of information about sales and the cost of sales
Journal of Accounting and Economics, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 19 September 2009
Sylvie Thoron, Emmanuel Sol, Marc Willinger, Do binding agreements solve the social dilemma?
Journal of Public Economics, In Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available online 18 September 2009
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